Deck Size & Formula

Trigger wrote:

2. Any good formulas of the number of each type of card in someone's Library?

Hypergeometric distribution is what you want.

In Excel it's HYPGEOMDIST (N, Z, X, Y)
where
X is the number of a certain card that you have in the deck.
Y is the number of cards in the deck.
Z is the number of cards you are drawing.
N is the number you are checking for.

So, if you have a 70 card deck with five Lilith's Blessings and you're wondering what are the odds of finding at least one amongst the ten first cards, you would put this in excel:
HYPGEOMDIST (1, 10, 5, 70)

The answer is about 40%, btw. Naturally you'd want to put it into Excel so that you'll have the Z going up from seven so that you can check what's you chance of finding the first Lilith's Blessing at a particular time in the game.

There's also an online tool for this but it isn't as handy:
stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

Lemminkäinen wrote:

Trigger wrote:

2. Any good formulas of the number of each type of card in someone's Library?

Hypergeometric distribution is what you want.

There's also an online tool for this but it isn't as handy:
stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

Or you could use the tools that Ira put together.

www.irafay.com/cards.php

Thanks for the information about the tool.

I can't get it to work for crypt draws. What am I doing wrong?

Looking for the chance to draw at least one if I put in 5 of a vampire in my crypt.

=HYPGEOMDIST(1,4,5,12)

It turns up 35%.

That is the probability to get exactly 1, not 1 or more. The link Lemminkainen gave provides both answers.

I've always wanted to be able to run crypt probabilities myself, so I am grateful for that link.

4 out of 12 crypt cards = 86% chance to draw in initial crypt
5 out of 12 crypt cards = 93% chance to draw in initial crypt

And never forget : if you have less than 9 copy of your star on 12 cards, the chance of drawing 0 copy of your star on the final is alway exactly 100%