Another way to learn VTES success...

I read this article today and it's very interesting. I very much like it.

When it comes to "I want to be a winner" then maybe you should look at the "dead losers" and not the "Survivors". Which is an interesting logic in the process of playing VTES and deck design. Analyse the failures, not the winners.


Survivorship Bias

The same thing also unfortunately works in reverse. For many years I have analysed my ousted deck, trying to figure how not to get ousted.
The result: tournaments with 3 x 2h games, 1.5 VP and no time for lucnh break.

War math

My take away from the section on lucky/unlucky was that people who fail should try something different.

What this means in V:TES to a lot of people is to play a different deck. I don't think this is the lesson.

The lesson is to play differently. If you are cautious and lose, try being bold. If you are bold and lose, try being cautious. If you generally focus on one player - prey, predator, evil monster across table - and lose, try focusing on another player or none at all or all of them.

And, if you think your deck is the reason you are losing, just stop. If you really want proof it isn't the deck, then start webdecking or borrowing decks. Alternatively, if you start winning playing someone else's decks, disproving my belief that deck matters little, then ... um ... you are winning ...