file Card odds drawing tool

06 Mar 2012 23:06 #25080 by Izaak
Card odds drawing tool was created by Izaak
So I've using on an Excel sheet that calculates "chance to have at moment x" odds for various situations, crypt sizes and library sizes since as long as I can remember, but I'm thinking to add some more advanced stuff like "expected amnount of extra transfers by turn x" and stuff like that.

I know most of this is easy to calculate for anyone that knows basic math, and if they don't it's likely available with some googling. However, I figured it was nice to have it all together in one Excel sheet, where I can fill in the data and experiment with stuff like acceleration and account for anarch convert crypt draws and the like.

What I wondered is if there is any interest in such an Excel? Because if there is, I'll go out of my way to make it nice and easy to use and share it, but if there's not I'll just keep it simple and for myself :)

Also any suggestions on what kind of statistical date you'd want from a given library or crypt would be welcome.
The following user(s) said Thank You: D-dennis, Baaliprimogen

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06 Mar 2012 23:51 #25087 by Forhead
Replied by Forhead on topic Re: Card odds drawing tool
I would love such an excel sheet.

Some ideas: Anarch converts in crypt. likeliness to have certain (i.e. villein, giant's blood) combo on starting hand/ after having played x cards. Chances of have a certain card on the opening hand.

Isak Esbjörnsson Bjärmark

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07 Mar 2012 03:17 #25091 by Juggernaut1981
ARDB has the option for you to get draw percentages for the chance of getting that card in your opening hand.

This is usually the most important element, if you're worried about the 'draw weight' of other cards, then rough probability is probably accurate enough.

:bruj::CEL::POT::PRE::tha: Baron of Sydney, Australia, 418

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07 Mar 2012 03:43 #25095 by KevinM
Replied by KevinM on topic Re: Card odds drawing tool
irafay.com/combo.php already does a lot of that.

Kevin M., Prince of Las Vegas
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07 Mar 2012 10:16 #25123 by Izaak
Replied by Izaak on topic Re: Card odds drawing tool
Yes I am aware that between all the different tools you can probably manage to find everything. I also believe I said that in my OP.

Which is why I asked if there would be any use for me to collect every useful card drawing statistic in an Excel and make it easy to use and look fancy. If it's not, then I won't bother, but if people would like to have/use it, I'll go out of my way. Which is what I asked.

I mean, I already know that 5 in 13 gives the best odds to have exactly one of a superstar in your opening crypt. But what about Tupdog nd Tremere antitribu. And what about Anarch Converts, if you account for their crypt draw?

And what about card combo's in hand after playing/discarding X cards? What if one of those cards I played is a Dreams? Or a Barrens? What about transfers? How many transfers can I expect to have after Y turns given I have P Info Highways, Q Dreams of the Sphinx and R Zillah's Valley in my deck?

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07 Mar 2012 10:49 #25128 by johannes
Replied by johannes on topic Re: Card odds drawing tool
I would use it, given it has a good usability. I would suggest a screenshot of what you have currently to help people visiualizing the probably end-result.

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