file Some EC day2 analisis

10 Mar 2016 13:09 #75916 by elotar
Replied by elotar on topic Some EC day2 analisis

So 35 out 0f 40 were educated guesses...


You are free to collect and provide lists of all EC day 2 decks for better analisis, if you still think that there were some meaningful number of "Ventrue decks without dom".

If you bother to read the whole post you can see that there are quite clear clusters (tiers) of disciplines present (number of t1=2*t2=4*t3), so few decks guessed incorrectly will not change the picture.

:splat: NC Russia
:DEM::san::nec::cap4:

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10 Mar 2016 13:16 - 10 Mar 2016 13:20 #75917 by Ankha
Replied by Ankha on topic Some EC day2 analisis


Out of 1000 simulations there were:

302 finals with 1 dominate deck
334 finals with 2 dominate decks
173 finals with 3 dominate decks
56 finals with 4 dominate decks
4 finals with 5 dominate decks


So 131 of finals without dominate?

The exact probability was given before (10%). 1000 simulations shows that the divergence is still quite high (13% instead of 10%).

Anyway, you can't extract meaningful data from one event.

Considering that 50%* of game wins are due to the deck, the rest due to the talent / seating / draw luck, you'd require enormous amount of data to extract the % of extra wins due to playing dominate instead of another discipline.

For that, you'd have to collect data from every tournament and focus on the deck discipline only. The talent of the players (considering that good player sometimes don't play dominate, and "bad" players sometimes play dominate), the draw luck, the seatings would then be averaged, and the only distinction factor would be whether the deck contains dominate or not.

I don't know how many tournament data you'd have to collect, but I'd say more than a million to have a good level of confidence. (Remember the 3% error with the 1000 trials above?)

* +/- 15% depending on the reader's opinion

Prince of Paris, France
Ratings Coordinator, Rules Director
Last edit: 10 Mar 2016 13:20 by Ankha.

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10 Mar 2016 13:23 #75918 by 1muflon1
Replied by 1muflon1 on topic Some EC day2 analisis


So 131 of finals without dominate?

So, generally, we can't use your analisis on popular disciplines like dom/aus - nearly any results short of 5 in a finals will be possible.


With all the respect to you Elotar, but have you ever took statistics 101?

The whole point was to draw a distribution that shows how likely all possibilities from 0 to 5 dominate decks in this tournament was based on avaiable data.

I agree that it would be much better to have more detailed analysis with a lot better breakdown of disciplines, but for a different reason. My analysis compared just dominate against the bulk of other disciplines. It would be much more nuanced and better to compare dominate vs ausplex etc. but then that would take too long for one quick reply.

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10 Mar 2016 13:27 - 10 Mar 2016 14:37 #75919 by 1muflon1
Replied by 1muflon1 on topic Some EC day2 analisis

The exact probability was given before (10%). 1000 simulations shows that the divergence is still quite high (13% instead of 10%).


I could do 1 000 000 simulations, it would converge.... here you are just arguing about volume. + or - 3% is not that bad, given that the p value was 30.2% even with a bounds of uncertanity at +-20% nothing would change.

Anyway, you can't extract meaningful data from one event.



Agreed. But the main question of this post was: Does this tournament show that Dominate is OP or not? My answer was that this single tournament does not show that dominate is OP, respectively it is more correct to say that this tournament don't disprove proposition that dominate is not OP.

But precisely as you said: "Anyway, you can't extract meaningful data from one event."

But even given that statement, you can still say what this particular tournament says or does not say.
Last edit: 10 Mar 2016 14:37 by 1muflon1.

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10 Mar 2016 14:05 - 10 Mar 2016 14:06 #75920 by elotar
Replied by elotar on topic Some EC day2 analisis

But precisely as you said: "Anyway, you can't extract meaningful data from one event."


Obviously you can, you just have to understand what is information.

My answer was that this single tournament does not show that dominate is OP, respectively it is more correct to say that this tournament don't disprove proposition that dominate is not OP.


This is wery useful.

I've done some simulation for nec and pot.

0 926
1 71
2 3

0 864
1 125
2 10
3 1

Interesting that for this "weaker" disciplines we are "on the brink of inplausibility".

As i already said the conclusion "disciplines does not significantly matter" will be wery usefull too.

:splat: NC Russia
:DEM::san::nec::cap4:
Last edit: 10 Mar 2016 14:06 by elotar.

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10 Mar 2016 14:44 - 10 Mar 2016 14:44 #75921 by Ankha
Replied by Ankha on topic Some EC day2 analisis

But precisely as you said: "Anyway, you can't extract meaningful data from one event."


Obviously you can, you just have to understand what is information.

Certainly not something meaningful in answering the OP question: "To continue eternal discussion "dominate is broken and combat is weak"."

Even if there had been 4 or 5 decks with dom in final, it could have been a coincidence.

I don't really understand what you'd like this post to contribute to.

On the one hand, you post probabilities that are not meaningful; on the other handyou say

Whole point of it was not to calculate probabilities, but to show, that mythes about brokennes of some disciplines/strategies got nothing to do with real situation at the top level of the game, so active members of comunity can consentrate on more pressing meters to solve.


based on those probabilities.

Prince of Paris, France
Ratings Coordinator, Rules Director
Last edit: 10 Mar 2016 14:44 by Ankha.

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