question-circle Emerald Legionnaire — First Black Chantry Nerf?

01 Apr 2019 21:08 - 01 Apr 2019 21:20 #94331 by Mewcat
What was you data analysis paradigm?

I mean you find that it is the most featured clan card and then discard that. What would have been convincing? Additionally you make a joke about ignoring the most featured card. Seems disingenuous.
Last edit: 01 Apr 2019 21:20 by Mewcat.

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01 Apr 2019 21:49 - 01 Apr 2019 21:57 #94332 by Bloodartist
My personal opinion is that drawing any conclusions about meta is not possible without including data from the entire finals table rather than just the winner..(data from entire tournament preferred..)

A heretic is a man who sees with his own eyes.
—Gotthold Ephraim Lessing



Last edit: 01 Apr 2019 21:57 by Bloodartist.

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02 Apr 2019 12:50 #94340 by skimflux

What was you data analysis paradigm?

I mean you find that it is the most featured clan card and then discard that. What would have been convincing? Additionally you make a joke about ignoring the most featured card. Seems disingenuous.


I'm trying to check if EL is a clear outlier - if yes, there are grounds for a nerf/ban. But there are many contributing variables to consider, so it is not enough to show that EL has a high win rate.
Many sets see a surge in usage & win rate in the year after release - LK's win rate is at 10.7%* for 2018, but Gehenna had 40%, Anarchs 20%, SoC 14%, 10th had 26,5% (with only 10 new cards!), LoB peaked at 36,5% in 2006, and many of the larger sets were up to 60-70% usage one year after release. So LK doesn't seem unusual in that regard.
Besides, in the past most new cards were released in boosters, so players looking to build a specific new deck would have to chase and collect those cards over months/years (the surge in Ashur usage after the Anthology release is a nice demonstration of this effect). With LK everyone who wants to build an EL deck can do so right away, so I expect it to ramp up faster and the novelty effect to wear off sooner.

Comparing to other clan cards EL gets the top spot for the past 10 years with 11,8% of all decks using clan-specific cards in 2018, but then again, Nephandus was in 10,5% of decks in 2017, Ventrue Headquarters had 10.8% in 2009, and Sudario Refraction got 10% in 2008.
If we go back to 2000-2001 then Ventrue Headquarters, Muddled Vampire Hunter, and Asylum Hunting Ground each got more than 11% of wins.

Comparing to actually banned cards:
- Lillith's Blessing was in 32% of winning decks in 2012
- Anthelios got 13.5% in 2013 and 11.5% in 2014
- Memories of Mortality was in 17% in 2007, and Edge Explosion in 13% - Imbued decks got 23.5% of the wins that year.

All of these cards also had rarity/availability issues contributing to the ban.

So IMO EL doesn't reach the criteria for a ban, but if its win rate increases going into 2020 then a nerf should be considered. I don't expect that though - I think the novelty will wear off and many players are now packing anti-ally tech, so the win rate for EL should come down.

* LK is not only about EL - there are now 3 !Sal decks using LK cards in the TWDA :)
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03 Apr 2019 10:30 #94353 by Bloodartist

I'm trying to check if EL is a clear outlier - if yes, there are grounds for a nerf/ban. But there are many contributing variables to consider, so it is not enough to show that EL has a high win rate.
Many sets see a surge in usage & win rate in the year after release - LK's win rate is at 10.7%* for 2018, but Gehenna had 40%, Anarchs 20%, SoC 14%, 10th had 26,5% (with only 10 new cards!), LoB peaked at 36,5% in 2006, and many of the larger sets were up to 60-70% usage one year after release. So LK doesn't seem unusual in that regard.
Besides, in the past most new cards were released in boosters, so players looking to build a specific new deck would have to chase and collect those cards over months/years (the surge in Ashur usage after the Anthology release is a nice demonstration of this effect). With LK everyone who wants to build an EL deck can do so right away, so I expect it to ramp up faster and the novelty effect to wear off sooner.

Comparing to other clan cards EL gets the top spot for the past 10 years with 11,8% of all decks using clan-specific cards in 2018, but then again, Nephandus was in 10,5% of decks in 2017, Ventrue Headquarters had 10.8% in 2009, and Sudario Refraction got 10% in 2008.
If we go back to 2000-2001 then Ventrue Headquarters, Muddled Vampire Hunter, and Asylum Hunting Ground each got more than 11% of wins.

Comparing to actually banned cards:
- Lillith's Blessing was in 32% of winning decks in 2012
- Anthelios got 13.5% in 2013 and 11.5% in 2014
- Memories of Mortality was in 17% in 2007, and Edge Explosion in 13% - Imbued decks got 23.5% of the wins that year.

All of these cards also had rarity/availability issues contributing to the ban.

So IMO EL doesn't reach the criteria for a ban, but if its win rate increases going into 2020 then a nerf should be considered. I don't expect that though - I think the novelty will wear off and many players are now packing anti-ally tech, so the win rate for EL should come down.

* LK is not only about EL - there are now 3 !Sal decks using LK cards in the TWDA :)


You are very convincing in making it look like you know what you are talking about.

A heretic is a man who sees with his own eyes.
—Gotthold Ephraim Lessing



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03 Apr 2019 10:50 - 03 Apr 2019 10:50 #94354 by Kraus

[P]rovide reasoned counter-arguments that improve the conversation.

From the Forum guidelines. Relevant part is bolded.

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Last edit: 03 Apr 2019 10:50 by Kraus.
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03 Apr 2019 14:05 #94355 by skimflux

You are very convincing in making it look like you know what you are talking about.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

'Lies, damned lies, and statistics'... But really, I'm just an amateur with delusions of knowing how to work an Excel file :)

I would rather present the full data so everyone can make their own analysis and conclusions, but this forum is far from ideal for that (do you know how hard it is to post a large matrix here? You have to hand craft the BBCode, it's almost like going back to the 90's... if anyone has any suggestions for an easy way to convert Excel tables to bbcode, I'd be happy to hear them. Then again, they get all mangled up by the fixed page width anyway...).

So, I will post a link to the full updated TWDA report as soon as I can.

I do agree that having data on all tournament participating decks would be ideal, but we must do with what we have.
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